Gross Guesses

Summer's over so let's look back at some rash guesses regarding movie grosses. I get these courtesy of Gaucho.

Here's what Premiere magazine expected to finish on top:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2. Superman Returns
3. Cars
4. X-Men: The Last Stand
5. Mission Impossible III
6. Over the Hedge
7. The Da Vinci Code
8. Click
9. Miami Vice
10.You, Me and Dupree

Here are the best guesses of Entertainment Weekly:

1. Superman Returns
2. Mission Impossible III
3. X-Men: The Last Stand
4. Cars
5. The Da Vinci Code
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
7. Over the Hedge
8. Poseidon
9. The Break-Up
10. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby

Gaucho himself made a list:

1. Superman Returns
2. The Da Vinci Code
3. Cars
4. X-Men: The Last Stand
5. Over the Hedge
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
7. Mission Impossible III
8. Snakes on a Plane
9. Lady in the Water
10. Little Miss Sunshine

Here are the actual winners, with their grosses rounded to the nearest 5 million. (Some are still playing so I had to guess the final number).

1. Pirate Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 420
2. Cars 245
3. X-Men: The Last Stand 235
4. The Da Vinci Code 220
5. Superman Returns 200
6. Over The Hedge 155
7. Talladega Nights: The Ballad Of Ricky Bobby 150
8. Click 135
9. Mission Impossible III 135
10. The Devil Wears Prada 125

For good measure, here are the next ten:

11. The Break-Up 120
12. Nacho Libre 80
13. You, Me And Dupree 75
14. World Trade Center 75
15. Monster House 75
16. Miami Vice 65
17. The Fast And The Furious: Tokyo Drift 65
18. Poseidon 60
19. Little Man 60
20. The Omen 55

Of course, this is domestic gross. Some movies play better internationally (for instance, Tom Cruise films), and then there are DVDs and other markets, so these number represent far less than half the revenue stream. Still, they give a reasonable clue to the films' popularity.

The top grossers weren't that hard to guess, though their order was. Congrats to Premiere for getting the big one right. Pirates ruled this summer, almost doubling its closest competitor, but EW and Gaucho put it only sixth.

The always reliable Pixar, with their latest blockbuster, Cars, was second, which is pretty close to the guesses. The third X-Men film did quite well, finishing third, once again to no one's surprise. With a big star, director and novel, The Da Vinci Code was the last of the summer's 200 million+ blockbusters, and all three guessed it would do pretty well.

The ultra-expensive Superman Returns had very disappointing returns, not quite reaching the 200 million mark. A good sign of how disappointing this was is Premiere expected it to finish second while EW and Gaucho thought it'd be first.

Over The Hedge finished sixth, pretty much as all predicted. Then we get to seventh place, Talladega Nights. Perhaps questioning Will Ferrell's star power, the movie was passed over by Premiere and Gaucho. EW did let it slip in, but only in tenth place. A more reliable comedy name, Adam Sandler, had another hit with Click, finishing eighth for the summer. Premiere got it, but EW and Gaucho didn't see it.

The high-profile Tom Cruise sequel, Mission Impossible III, did a weak 135 million, finishing ninth. EW, overrating yet another film, expected it to finish second. Premiere, perhaps sensing Cruise's PR problems, still thought it would make fifth. Gaucho (having already seen its opening weekend) guessed a reasonably accurate seventh.

Every summer there's at least one sleeper, a film no one expects much of that becomes a solid hit. This summer, in tenth place, it was The Devil Wears Prada. Check the lists as much as you like, you won't find it.

The only other film topping the century mark was the Vince Vaughn/Jennifer Aniston hit The Break-Up, which EW picked for ninth.

What other guesses didn't make the top ten? Well, Premiere had Miami Vice and You, Me And Dupree, figuring they'd be ninth and tenth when in fact they finished sixteenth and thirteenth. EW thought the big-budget remake Poseidon would finish eighth. It only made eighteenth.

Gaucho's last three guesses, Snakes On A Plane, Lady In The Water and Little Miss Sunshine, were off. The first wasn't the hit the internet fever suggested. The second was the first flop for M. Night Shyamalan since he hit it big with The Sixth Sense. The last one is actually an inspired guess. It's still playing quite strongly and has a shot to make it up to around 70 million or so.