Saturday, August 30, 2008

Wow!

Well, McCain sure tore things up. Not that his Veep pick was entirely unexpected. Overall, I'd say Sarah Palin is a positive, though I doubt she'll make much difference. (Not making much difference is a good thing--I think it's easier to lose on a Veep pick than win.)

The two most obvious positives are pretty good ones. First, she truly seems to excite the base, something McCain needed to do. (At the very least, he didn't need to make a pick that gave them the finger, like Lieberman.) Second, she appeals to women, a group McCain needs to make gains in.

New England Guy writes the pick is bad because it "looks to be desperately pandering to disappointed Hillary-backers." No matter who McCain picked, she'd have to appeal to SOMEONE. This is generally considered a positive in a Veep. Should McCain have picked another aging, white, male Republican from the Southwest to show he was above "pandering"? (By the way, how can a pick be risky and pandering at the same time?) For better or worse (worse, I'd say), a lot of people are extra-excited about Obama because he's (half) African-American. Almost as certainly, some will be excited that a women might sit in the second-highest executive slot.

The truth is there are a fair amount of embittered Hillary voters (and just as many non-bitter women in general) who are not guaranteed to vote Democrat--for the McCain campaign to try to appeal to this important demographic is a smart move. That she sends a scare into Obama's people is shown by their reaction. They immediately sent out a nasty, dismissive comment about her, and a few hours later responded in a more muted tone, realizing, after the battle with Hillary and the Biden pick, they don't want to tick off women any more than they have to.

There are other positives but they're fairly minor: this steals the spotlight from the Obama speech and the Democrats' convention in general, and turns Labor Day weekend into a warm-up for the Republican Convention; it ratifies the belief that McCain is a maverick and not an establishment figure; it gives us an attractive, refreshing figure with many positive qualities and a good story that should play well; it gives a patina of freshness to the McCain ticket that was missing, and, when considered with the Biden pick, makes it almost as forward-looking as Obama's campaign.

But there are negatives, of course: McCain's campaign wasn't going badly, yet this is the kind of shocking move that usually comes out of desperation; presumably she's been vetted, but being a relative unknown, maybe she has skeletons in the closet; there's still some number out there that don't want to vote for a women (though, like race, it may be more than made up by those who actively do--plus this is only for Veep); she's from a small (electoral college-wise) state McCain's already won.

But all these are insignificant next to her level of experience. She obviously doesn't have too much--not enough to be President, many would say. And since McCain has made a big deal about Obama's lack, doesn't this take away one of his strongest weapons?

Well, yes and no, mostly no. McCain's people will have to tread lightly in this area, but it still plays. After all, we're talking about a Veep. Unless McCain dies in office (which is unlikely), she won't be taking over. And even if he did die in office, unless it was early in his term, she'd have a few years of the best possible experience for the job. In any case, if she were suddenly President (something I admit I've never thought about for any Veep before), she could pick her own Veep, and get someone with lots of experience.

But more important, her inexperience is a trap for Obama. McCain has to watch out, but this is twice as true for Obama (or Biden). Every time his side brings it up, the unspoken answer is "okay, she doesn't have enough experience, but neither does Obama--now which is worse, a Prez who doesn't know what he's doing, or a Veep in the same position?"

11 Comments:

Blogger VermontGuy said...

My first thought, probably like most people, was "Sarah who?" After doing some reading about her and listening to her talk, my second thought is that this might just be a masterstroke by McCain.

The potential upside to this pick is huge and the downside is "well, you were going to lose anyway". If she handles herself as her resume and reputation suggest, things could get very interesting.

Plus, I've got the feeling that Biden's asshole puckered when he heard her name.

4:04 AM, August 30, 2008  
Blogger New England Guy said...

Historic choice (24 years after the other party went down to defeat with a similar gambit) but, stick a fork in him.....

There is nothing wrong with calculation (in terms of acheiving success) and pandering but when its done poorly it really takes a big bite. McCain has been stating Obama has no experience and based on my informal observations in Western PA this week-end, the claim had some legs, and what does no teams up with a 44 year old from a fringe state with even less experience while an ongoing issue of his campaign is that since he's old, he might croak and therefore he needs someone to takeover right away. Apparently, he didn't mean his experience attack. (I thought he had well paid lobbyists that were supposed to think of things) This is bad calculation. Of course, the fact that Gov Palin sounds like a latter day Phyllis Schafly doesn't help with the middle- maybe this is to energize the base for 2010 midterms?

LA Guy is right, the Obama campaign can certainly stumble on this issue. As he become less of an outsider and more a party guy, this is possible. They should leave the experience issue alone except for a rebuttal. Palin will fal or succeed on her wn merits- they don't need to push the issue.

7:41 AM, August 30, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We all know New England guy is an independent thinker, but he's sounding like an Obama stooge. McCain is runningt for President, not Sarah Palin. Candidates regularly pick people who balance them, just as Obama rode to the top on his unalterable opposition to Iraq then chose a guy who voted for it. (This was actually the issue that got him the nomination, while McCain's experience had little to do with him getting his, but I didn't see New England Guy bothering to note this.)

By the way, "fringe state." Like WYoming? Even if New England Guy were an official representative of Obama this would be a stretch.

10:21 AM, August 30, 2008  
Blogger LAGuy said...

How Sarah Palin will play is an open question. She's definitely a risk, which means it could pay off big or be a disaster. Right now I'd ignore anything you hear from people who already know how they're going to vote. But New England Guy's intemperate words reminded me of another positive. The more people attack her, and call her names, the more it can anger women who feel that Hillary was treated in a sexist manner, who will now feel that Palin is facing unfair treatment.

10:54 AM, August 30, 2008  
Blogger QueensGuy said...

She obviously doesn't have too much--not enough to be President, many would say.

Forget what "many" would say. I want to hear what VG has to say, because just 4 days ago he DQ'd Obama as unqualified based on, inter alia, experience. So what do you say, VG?

7:54 AM, August 31, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sounds like queensguy is falling into the trap. I'm sure the Republicans would gladly admit SP may not be qualified if the Democrats would admit BO may not be qualified. (Instead they're trying to thread the needle.) Now which is the bigger deal?

10:58 AM, August 31, 2008  
Blogger QueensGuy said...

No, no, no. It's those -- including VG -- who called Obama unqualified who now have to answer for what appears to be hypocrisy. I couldn't care less whether she's unqualified because I wasn't voting for McCain anyway, so I couldn't really care less if he picks a token woman.

1:27 PM, August 31, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The President is the one who has to be qualified. The Veep is the one who has to say "The President is right."

1:46 PM, August 31, 2008  
Blogger QueensGuy said...

Pretty much, yes. But she's the Harriet Miers of VP choices, and I doubt many women will see her otherwise. Is there anyone here who would argue with a straight face that she had any shot at the job if she were a man? Or that she's the most qualified woman in the Republican party? It's affirmative action tokenism at its worst.

6:09 PM, August 31, 2008  
Blogger VermontGuy said...

Forget what "many" would say. I want to hear what VG has to say, because just 4 days ago he DQ'd Obama as unqualified based on, inter alia, experience. So what do you say, VG?

No, no, no. It's those -- including VG -- who called Obama unqualified who now have to answer for what appears to be hypocrisy.

Wow. I had no idea my thoughts made such an impression. :)

This is a big subject, too big to be covered in a comment, so let me try to be succinct. First of all, you are conflating two separate issues. My dislike of Obama has nothing to do with McCain's pick of a running mate. Obama's candidacy will rise or fall on its own merits, just as Palin's will. In saying that I "have to answer for what appears to be hypocrisy" you are in essence asking me to answer X in terms of Y. Not only do I not "have" to do that, it doesn't make sense to try.

My reasons for disliking Obama are many and varied. They are based on the three qualifications I look for in a President (experience, good judgment, and leadership), and they have been formed by what I've learned about him during the almost two years he's been running for President.

Sarah Palin is, at this point, a relative unknown. That, in and of itself, does not make her the "Harriet Miers" of VP choices, nor does it make her a token. If this were strictly a resume contest, I would rate them both inexperienced. But experience is only one part of the puzzle and having lots of experience isn't necessarily a plus. Let me give you an example:

Obama picks Joe Biden as his running mate, in part because of Biden's long experience with foreign policy. So now Joe Biden, who voted against the Gulf War, voted for the Iraq War, opposed the surge, and advocates splitting Iraq into three separate entities, is just a heartbeat away from the Presidency.

Frankly, that scares the shit out of me and, by itself, is reason enough to oppose an Obama Presidency.

Time will tell if McCain made the right choice.

7:25 AM, September 01, 2008  
Blogger QueensGuy said...

Thanks very much for the detailed and well-reasoned answer, VG. I can't bear to listen to the talking heads on tv, so I really value getting different perspectives on this forum.

1:35 PM, September 01, 2008  

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