Sunday, October 26, 2008

You Gotta Do Better Than That

We know the American Thinker wants McCain for President, so perhaps it's not surprising they make an argument about why he'll win. It amounts to this: there are plenty of Democrats who support McCain. No doubt true, but so what? The question is what percentage of Dems support McCain, since it's easy enough to find anecdotes.

Right now the polls show Obama with an imposing lead--over 5%--and he's had it since just about when the financial meltdown began. How does the Thinker explain these numbers?:

It's inevitable. It's his election to lose. What proof does the media offer? Public opinion polls that supposedly show Obama "winning" the race. (But see here and here.)

That's it. No more talk about the polls. The linked arguments do discuss the polling, and essentially say though they all show Obama in the lead, they don't all show him definitely winning if you take into account margin of error and undecideds, and they're weighted poorly to boot. Pretty thin stuff.

I'm sure there are a lot of imaginative ways to show why McCain should win. But unless someone can explain convincingly why the polls are, or will be, wrong, it's hardly worth the effort.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agreed. The only argument is that polls have been notoriously wrong in this election cycle and it may have have something to do with the net and instant information and voters changing preserneces more frequently (look forward to after election analysis). However, thats more of a cautionary note or Obama than any sort of real hope for McCain.

10:19 AM, October 26, 2008  

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