Predictable
The headline from Michael Barone's column says it all: "House Democrats head for a thumping at the polls." Indeed, many pieces are saying the Dems are in trouble. And I don't doubt that's what the latest numbers are suggesting. Still, it's early. Three months is plenty of time for people to change their minds. All it takes is a shift of a few points.
The question that interests me is how does the widespread notion of an imminent rout affect things. There are arguments for all sides.
#1: No effect. Most people are out of the loop, not paying close attention to the elections (and they shouldn't--they have lives), so the Barones of the world can make predictions to their heart's content without changing anything. And those who keeps up on the races can think for themselves, and aren't going to change their votes based on what Michael Barone or Nate Silver write.
#2: Helps Repubs. The drumbeat of disaster for Dems leads to a defeatist attitude. Voters for the Repubs are energized while the Dems stay home, and those on the edge are happy to jump on the bandwagon. It also helps the money flow toward Repubs, as people want to back winners.
#3: Helps Dems. Repubs start thinking it's a lock and get complacent, while Dems realize they need to get busy. Also, creates unrealistic expectations, so when the Repubs do well, but don't take over, it's a letdown.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:22 AM
8 Comments:
It'd be so much easier to travel back in time and kill your grandfather or something.
Keep up with Michelle Obama and the girls as well by using one website for everything!. [url=http://www.vanessasac.com]vanessa bruno[/url] boutiques vanessa bruno
[url=http://www.canadagoosecaoutlet.ca]Canada Goose outlet[/url] The MTV Europe Awards featured less formal handbags on the red carpet than those found at dressier awards shows.
[url=http://www.parkaoutelt.ca]canada goose outlet[/url] For skirts, there are special hangers that can clip on to the top that are available at any drugstore. [url=http://www.beatsbydresoldesa.fr]http://www.beatsbydresoldesa.fr[/url]
You could cook various recipes that you could actually use in real life.. [url=http://www.vanessasac.com]sacs vanessa bruno soldes [/url] vanessa bruno sacs
[url=http://www.canadagoosecaoutlet.ca]Canada Goose Chilliwack Bomber[/url] Many sellers of authentic LV here on eBay DO sell brand new, never used, tags included etc.
[url=http://www.parkaoutelt.ca]canada goose chilliwack bomber[/url] If you do not believe in me twenty-four hrs a day ask for a jogger. [url=http://www.beatsbydresoldesa.fr]casque beats by dre pas cher[/url]
Put cling wrap over one half, then coin (push down until it's almost level with the clay), then another layer of cling wrap, then second half of clay. [url=http://www.vanessasac.com]http://www.vanessasac.com [/url] vanessa bruno sac
[url=http://www.canadagoosecaoutlet.ca]Canada Goose outlet[/url] More than 2,800 people were registered at various state, local and Red Cross shelters in the state, down from around 4,000 earlier.
[url=http://www.ithomasuk.co.uk]thomas sabo bracelets[/url] He must straighten the jack into the centre line once it has been delivered. [url=http://www.pandorajeweluk.co.uk]pandora jewellery[/url]
This article explains those tips in detail, so that you . [url=http://www.vanessasac.com]sac lune vanessa bruno [/url] vanessa bruno en ligne
[url=http://www.canadagoosecaoutlet.ca]Canada Goose Chilliwack Bomber[/url] It's informal.
[url=http://www.parkaoutelt.ca]canada goose chilliwack bomber[/url] I'll inform how to swear the difference and strategically reinforce formal emotions so you don't shoulder quality that doesn't belong to you.. [url=http://www.pandorajeweluk.co.uk]pandora Sale[/url]
Also, because Tink tends to be trendy for a bit, then drop out, then come back I would avoid doing too much with her. [url=http://www.vanessasac.com] vanessa bruno boutiques [/url] sac vanessa bruno
[url=http://www.dresshotsale.co.uk]red evening dresses[/url] (Don't forget to about the length: The top edge should sit a few inches above your natural waist.).
[url=http://www.ithomasuk.co.uk]thomas sabo charms uk[/url] The overdoor shoe rack comes in two different options. [url=http://www.pandoracharmstore.com]pandora store[/url]
They also look the best and can take a good beating whereas some of the cloth type fabric can easily fade and tear.. [url=http://www.vanessasac.com]vanessa bruno sacs[/url] sac cabas vanessa bruno
[url=http://www.dresshotsale.co.uk]evening dresses plus size[/url] If possible start with making small changes each day, and be successful with them, and add a few more as weeks go by, you should start to notice a combined effect that will bring about the weight loss you seek.
[url=http://www.ithomasuk.co.uk]thomas sabo sale[/url] Elegantly Intimate has a signature look, in that when customers are coming to us, they know that they will receive exactly what they are looking for, but still be able to feel flirty, and sophisticated. [url=http://www.beatsbydresoldesa.fr]beats by dre[/url]
All these carriers are generally fashionable, entertaining and taking effect. [url=http://www.vanessasac.com]cabas vanessa bruno soldes[/url] sac vanessa bruno en solde
[url=http://www.dresshotsale.co.uk]long evening dresses uk[/url] Whereas with Kenworth AirGlide airbag suspension, the suspension levels out quickly, maintaining stability without affecting the vehicle.
[url=http://www.ithomasuk.co.uk]thomas sabo bracelets uk[/url] You may even try to find a guest columnist or conduct an interview with a local who knows something about the topic. [url=http://www.pandoracharmstore.com]pandora charm[/url]
Post a Comment
<< Home